Here is our take on the economy and markets over the past week and its impact on the approximately 90 markets we watch and which can be traded at either our Sponsor VantageFX or at AVATrade.
The highlights for the week were:
- The Italian Election reminded all of us of the true nature of Europe’s future. Austerity and the technocrats trying to disenfranchise the populace is simply going to lead to a tipping point where the masses take back the cudgel. Grillo’s 25% vote plus Berlusconi’s bloc puts the anti austerity forces in the ascendancy in one of Europe’s most important and largest economies. European Politicians thought they had the crisis licked. They have not and Euro is headed toward 1.2650 at a minimum
- In the US Fed Chairman Bernanke’stold is 3 times during the week that he is in no hurry to withdraw stimulus and that he believed that the risks associated with frothy markets are more than outweighed by getting people back to work.
- This went a long way to soothing concerns in markets that flared the week before and were heightened by the Italian election results. But it strengthened rather than weakened the US dollar as the steady hand and stronger US data combined to push anything that might be considered a “global” trade lower. Gold, Brent and Nymex Crude, copper, Silver, the Euro and the Aussie Dollar all fell.
- The PMI data for France, Italy, Spain, Britain (all in the contraction zone) and China was also lower than expected according to data last week while the US GDP missed expectations of a 0.5% increase in Q4 with a rise of just 0.1%. Somehow the Kansas City manufacturing index tanked to -10 from -1 last time.
- But on the bright side Durable goods orders in the US were up 1.9%, Chicago PMI jumped to a 6 month high, new home sales were up and the ISM Manufacturing rose to 54.2.
- Volatility spiked Monday more than 20% but interesting is the intraday ranges on currency, commodity and equity markets. ATR’a are climbing which is a big signal toward increased volatility and more instability.
Now a look at the market’s performance over the week:
Top 10 rises and falls in markets for the week
US dollar was the winner this week with the “globals” all under pressure.
Global FX Big 14 Foreign Exchange Markets
Here again USD Strength is the story of the weak
Aussie Dollar Crosses
The Aussie came under some pressure this week – looks headed toward 1.01
Euro and Sterling Crosses
Euro and GBP were under pressure this week – both are biased lower.
Global Equity Indices
no surprise here that Milanese stocks were off but the rest of the world shook off any troubles because Bernanke said he is going to stay the course.
Commodity Market Performance
A better US dollar and weaker data saw many commodities under pressure
MT4 Tradeable Bonds
Fear helped the Bond markets mostly this week.
Have a great day.
Please remember these are not recommendations for you to trade these are my views and I have my risk management tools and risk parameters that you do not have access to. Thus, this blog is for information only and does not constitute advice. Neither Greg McKenna nor www.globalfx.com.au has taken your personal circumstances, objectives or financial situation into account. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs.