Australian Dollar breaking lower
February 7, 2013 / Aussie Dollar / FX Insights
3 COMMENTS
The Aussie is breaking down as investors look to other markets for profitable opportunities in 2013. Part of this is a natural rotation once a trend becomes mature and part of it is the recognition that the legs underpinning the Aussie strength are slowly getting kicked out. Growth, interest rates and global fear are all changing moving negatively for the Aussie Dollar.
Consequently the outlook has darkened for the Aussie and the low overnight of 1.0293 is not far from where the Aussie sits this morning at 1.0301 for a 100 point or 0.84% fall. We tweeted yesterday as the Aussie was breaking the bottom of the box that,
#AUD breaking lower – we’ve had the break of 20d low last Friday and then usual pullback this next mve culd be deepish
Please excuse the typos but that’s required to meet the 140 character Twitter limit and you can see in the table below that the Aussie has lost ground on all the Major crosses
So as we can see in the chart below the big fall has done a lot of damage to the Aussie but on a 4 hour and 1 hour basis it is probably going to rest/rally in the run up to today’s unemployment numbers. The market is looking for a 5k increase in jobs according to FXStreet but this is well inside the standard deviation of the employment report so anything is possible.
The 200 day moving average for the AUD is 1.0309 and will offer some support but our JimmyR signal has been negative for a few days now and our other trend following system went short Friday.
The Aussie looks stretched around or below 1.03 for the moment but seems headed lower in time.
Have a great day.
Greg McKenna
Twitter: @FX_Global
Tags: AUD, Aussie Dollar, Aussie Dollar Fall, Global FX
Please remember these are not recommendations for you to trade these are my views and I have my risk management tools and risk parameters that you do not have access to. Thus, this blog is for information only and does not constitute advice. Neither Greg McKenna nor www.globalfx.com.au has taken your personal circumstances, objectives or financial situation into account. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs.
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About the author
Greg McKenna is Chief Investment and Market Strategist at GlobalFX He has 25 years’ experience in Banking and Finance specifically in Trading, Portfolio Management, as a Strategist and as a Treasurer. In 1998 Greg became Australia’s first currency strategist at Westpac before moving on to Head of Currency Strategy at NAB. As a Fund Manager with the NSW State Super Board he managed Cash, Bond and Foreign Exchange funds with assets under management in the many billions of dollars. More recently he was Treasurer of Newcastle Permanent Building Society where he was responsible for funding, liquidity, balance sheet and interest rate management for the $7.5 billion institution.
3 Comments
2013-02-08 07:30:27
[...] we discussed in yesterday morning’s note on the Aussie’s Break lower we expected a little recovery off the 1.0309 200 day moving [...]
2013-02-08 07:35:59
[...] we discussed in yesterday morning’s note on the Aussie’s Break lower we expected a little recovery off the 1.0309 200 day moving [...]
2013-02-08 12:45:21
[...] we discussed in yesterday morning’s note on the Aussie’s Break lower we expected a little recovery off the 1.0309 200 day moving [...]