Aussie Dollar at the cross roads – where to from here
November 14, 2012 / Aussie Dollar / FX Insights
1 COMMENTS
Last week I did a webinar at FXStreet on the outlook for the Aussie Dollar.
In preparing the presentation which is about 34 pages I had to go backwards and think not of the next trade or money making opportunity but what was driving the Aussie using my usual 5 driver process and how to explain that simply. Equally though I had to answer the question of whether or not the Aussie is a safe haven these days.
I think it is clear, and you will see in the presentation, that something fundamental changed in the middle third of 2011. This changed the flow into Aussie assets and the correlation of the AUD with its usual drivers.
Is it a structural shift or a cyclical shift and what does this shift mean for the long term outlook for the Aussie.
EDIT: FXStreet Keeps moving the Webinar but here is the Presentation from Scribd
Aussie Dollar at the Crossroads
If you are interested in the answers then this webinar will fill you in.
Have a great day.
Greg McKenna
Twitter: @FX_Global
Tags: AUD, AUDUSD, Aussie Dollar safe haven, Australian Dollar Outlook, FXStreet, Global FX, Is the Australian Dollar a safe haven
Please remember these are not recommendations for you to trade these are my views and I have my risk management tools and risk parameters that you do not have access to. Thus, this blog is for information only and does not constitute advice. Neither Greg McKenna nor www.globalfx.com.au has taken your personal circumstances, objectives or financial situation into account. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs.
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About the author
Greg McKenna is Chief Investment and Market Strategist at GlobalFX He has 25 years’ experience in Banking and Finance specifically in Trading, Portfolio Management, as a Strategist and as a Treasurer. In 1998 Greg became Australia’s first currency strategist at Westpac before moving on to Head of Currency Strategy at NAB. As a Fund Manager with the NSW State Super Board he managed Cash, Bond and Foreign Exchange funds with assets under management in the many billions of dollars. More recently he was Treasurer of Newcastle Permanent Building Society where he was responsible for funding, liquidity, balance sheet and interest rate management for the $7.5 billion institution.
1 Comments
2013-01-23 11:12:26
[...] relationship has been weaker than in the past (see our long term AUD outlook from November – here)but even using these old drivers the Aussie is still within 1 standard deviation of the NAB’s [...]